I believe that the consumers will soon start expecting the ubiquitous experience in everything that they touch and interact with ranging from their coffee cups to the cars and everything in between. This effect is going to be even more pronounced amongst millennial who grew up digitally and are entering into the workforce with an expectation of instant gratification. The mobile phone revolution was consumer-driven at large and Apple made the Smartphone category popular and appealing to non-enterprise consumers. These consumers slowly started expecting similar experience in enterprise software, because of which, many enterprise software vendors are now scrambling for making mobile a priority. I suggest that they learn a lesson from this and stay ahead of the curve when this ubiquitous convergence picks up momentum.
So what exactly does this mean to the enterprise ISVs?
Any surface can be an interface and a display:
I saw a range of new interface and display technology including pico projector, multi-touch screen by 3M, a screen with haptic feedback, and 3D gestural interfaces. A combination of a cheap projector and a camera could turn any surface into a display or an interface. The consumers will interact with software in unanticipated and unimaginable ways. This will put ISVs under pressure to support these alternate displays and interfaces. I see this as an opportunity for ISVs to differentiate their offering by leveraging instead of succumbing to this technology trend. Imagine a production floor that has the cameras and projectors mounted on all the walls. A maintenance technician could walk in and the maintenance information is projected on the machine itself which also doubles as a touch interface. The best interface is no interface. We all use software because we have to.
Location-based applications and geotagging will be a killer combination:
Google's Favorite Places and Nokia's Point and Find (that I saw at CES) are attempts to organize, and importantly, to own the information about places and objects using QR codes. The QR codes are fairly easy to generate and has flexible and extensible structure to hold useful information. The QR code readers are the devices that most of us already own - a camera phone with a working data connection. Combine geotagging with Augmented Reality that is already fueling the innovation in location-based applications, you have got a killer combination that could lead to some breakthrough innovation. This trend can easily be extended to the enterprise software to geotag objects and the associated processes from cradle-to-grave that provide contextual information to people when they interact with the software and the objects. This could lead to efficient manufacturing, smarter supply chain, and sustainable product life cycle management.
3D will go from "cool" to "useful" sooner than you think:
Yes, you and I will be wearing those 3D glasses in our living rooms and may be in our offices as well. Prada and Gucci might make them. What seems like beginning of 3D with movies, video games, and game consoles this area is going to explode with the opportunities. What is being designed as "cool" will suddenly be "useful". With the exception of a few niche solutions ISVs will likely brush off 3D as not relevant in the beginning until someone unlocks the pot of gold and everyone else will follow. Simply replicating 3D analog in a digital world will not make software better. Adding third dimension as an eye candy could actually introduce noise for the users that can look at the data in 2D more effectively. The ISV will have to hunt for the scenarios that amplify cognition and help users understand the data around certain business processes that are beyond their capacity to process in 2D. The 3D technology will be more effective when it is used in conjunction with complementing technology such as multi-touch interface to provide 3D affordances and with location-based and mapping technology to manage objects in 3D analog world.
The rendering technology will outpace non-graphics computation technology:
The investment into rendering hardware such as Toshiba's TV with the cell processors and graphic cards from ATI and nVidia complement the innovation in display elements technology e.g. LED, OLED, energy-efficient plasma etc. The combination of faster processor and sophisticated software is delivering hi-quality graphics at all form factors. The enterprise software ISV have so far focused on algorithmic computation of large volume of data to design various solutions. The rendering computation technology always lagged non-graphics data computation technology. Finally the rendering computation has not only caught up but it will outpace non-graphics data computation in some areas very soon. This opens up opportunities to design software that not only can crunch large volume of data but can leverage high-quality graphics without any perceived lag that delivers stunning user experience and realtime analysis and analytics.
Consumers will have "Personal Cloud" to complement the public cloud:
Okay, this is a stretch, but let me make an attempt to put all the pieces together. The consumers now have access to ridiculously powerful processors and plenty of storage in their set-top boxes, computers, appliances etc. These devices can be networked using wired and wireless devices that support wireless HDMI and USB 3.0. This configuration starts to smell like a mini "Personal Cloud" even though it does not have all the cloud properties. The public cloud, as we all know today, will mature and grow beyond utility computing and SaaS. The public cloud, the hardware that leverages IP6 and multicasting, and sophisticated CDN will see plenty of innovation ranging from streaming movies to calibrating carbon footprint of consumers against their neighbors. The public cloud and the personal cloud will complement each other in providing seamless ubiquitous user experience across all the devices. The ISV who will leverage the cloud and the channels to these consumers' devices have great potential to grow their portfolio of solutions that extends well beyond enterprise software and has a lot more productive and delighted users.
I don't want to predict what is a fad and what is the future but the convergence is clear and present. It is upto the ISVs to be innovative and find the golden nuggets and tune out the noise to deliver better business value to their customers.
On a side note, I really badly want this iPhone controlled AR.Drone - the coolest toy that I saw at CES!